Real Estate Market Update

AUGUST 2017 Inside Scoop – Ada County
If you like to keep score 13 vs. 3 :o)
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in in Bold
 
1.  Sales are UP 6% from last month, 13% UP from this same month last year.  Chart A3 
 
2.  Pending sales are down 4% from last month, UP 12% from a year ago. Chart A47, A48, & A49.
 
3.  The dollar volume was UP 8% from last month and 23% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5  
 
4.  Year to date sales units UP 1% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 10% higher this year.  More price increases are ahead for 2017. . . .  perhaps a 6-7% increase in median resale for 2017 over 2016.  Chart A6.  
 
5.  New Construction Median price UP 6% this month – and an 8% Increase from this same month last year.  Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold!  Chart A9
 
6.  Resale Median UP  2% this month – and a 10% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.
 
7.  Resale Affordability Unchanged now 23%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 18% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 29%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 13%.  Interest Rates continue at record lows but have gone from 3.47% to 4.20% just since the election. .now in May falling back to 4.01%, June 3.9% .Charts A39, A40, and A41.
 
8.  Inventory is down 1% from last month and 12% lower than last year at this time.  This is a very significant number.  Watch this, if it stays this much below last year’s levels price increases will heat up even more.  Charts A16 & A17
 
9.  New Construction inventory Down– 711 from 724 last month.  Last year at this time there were 749 new homes for sale.  Record high 09/06 at 1890!  Record low  06/13 at 494 but it has surged up since then.  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19
 
10.  Resale inventory is Down. – 1226 from 1228 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1440 resale homes for sale!!!.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   January 2017 is the NEW LOW Point in resale inventory at 555.  This is at least a 17 Year Low!  Good News for Builders!  Lack of inventory is forcing more new construction activity.  Chart A21
 
11.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is Down.  This month’s 1.7 from 1.8 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  NEW Record low – 06/17 at 1.6!  Chart A26.
 
12.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is unchanged.  Keep an eye on chart A28, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    This month’s 1.7 from 1.7 last month.  This is a critical benchmark number.  Last year at this time it was 2.0.  Chart A28
 
13.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 3.1 from 2.9 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time there was a 3.7 month inventory supply.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A30
14.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is unchanged.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 1.4 from 1.4 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 1.7 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32
 
15.  Final Sales Discount is unchanged.  From the last asking price to final sales price,  0.3% from 0.3% last month.  Record low – 05/17 0.2%.  Last year at this time it was 0.7%.  Chart 43
 
16.  Future Business Forecast is below 100%.  A54.  93%  – so closings next month will be below this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 94%.
 
 


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Real Estate Market Update

1.  Sales are UP 21% from last month, 2% down from this same month last year.  Chart A3 
 
2.  Pending sales are UP 7% from last month, down 1% from a year ago. – humm  Resale Pendings DOWN 12% from a year ago.  All of that slack is being made up for in New Construction. Chart A47, A48, & A49.
 
3.  The dollar volume was Up 25% from last month and 7% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5  
 
4.  Year to date sales units down 2% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 5% higher this year.  More price increases are ahead for 2017.  Chart A6.  
 
6.  Resale Median UP this month – $247,500.  This is a 4% change from last month; and a 8% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.
 
7.  Resale Affordability UNCHANGED now 22%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 18% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 29%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 13%.  Interest Rates continue at record lows but have gone from 3.47% to 4.20% just since the election. .now in May falling back to 4.01% .Charts A39, A40, and A41.
 
8.  Inventory is up 6% from last month and 12% lower than last year at this time.  This is a very significant number.  Watch this, if it stays this much below last year’s levels price increases will heat up even more.  Charts A16 & A17
 
9.  New Construction inventory down. – 756 from 785  last month.  Last year at this time there were 785 new homes for sale.  Record high 09/06 at 1890!  Record low  06/13 at 494 but it has surged up since then.  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19
 
10.  Resale inventory is up. – 1052 from 920 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1274 resale homes for sale!!!.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   January 2017 is the NEW LOW Point in resale inventory at 555.  This is at least a 17 Year Low!  Good News for Builders!  Lack of inventory is forcing more new construction activity.  Chart A21
 
11.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is Down.  This month’s 1.8 from 2.0 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  NEW Record low – 05/17 at 1.8!  Chart A26.
 
12.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Keep an eye on chart A28, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    This month’s 1.9 from 2.0 last month.  This is a critical benchmark number.  Last year at this time it was 2.1.  Chart A28
14.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is Down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 1.4 from 1.5 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 1.6 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32
 
15.  Final Sales Discount is down.  From the last asking price to final sales price,  0.2% from 0.5% last month.  Record low – 03/17 0.3%.  Last year at this time it was 0.4%.  Chart 43
 
 


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Real Estate Market Update

4 New Canyon County Charts.  In response to Al Busby’s request you will now find a pricing breakdown for New Construction Average Price & Median; as well as Resale of the same for Canyon.  This should be a great benefit if you do business in Canyon County.
 
A39L = Long View of Affordability.  I put this one in knowing that the data can’t be precisely read; but it does give clients a picture of “Affordability” from the peak of the bubble to the present time which is an excellent perspective.  When I have more time I plan to manually eliminate a lot of the overlapping data point labels and just show peaks and valleys.  Look for that in “future improvements.”  Please consider this one just a very “rough draft.”
Note: Major change in Ada Affordability Charts for January 2017.  I found Government Census information that confirms what we thought in class – Ada Median Household Income has NOT continued up 3%/year since the last official census.  Even this data through January 2015 is still only an “educated guess” by the census department and may be adjusted later.  But it is certainly more in keeping with what we are all feeling.  So in keeping with this data my “interpolations” for the last two years reflect this new data and it does make a significant difference as you can see by about 6-7%!
 
Mark the date: July 12 next Chart Classes at Title One in Meridian.  Thank you Laurie Burchfield for the Demo at Stats 101.  In the future I would like to have her play an even bigger role in teaching our Chart Classes.  Remember she IS the “Instigator!”  :o)


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Real Estate Market Update

AUGUST 2016 Inside Scoop – Ada County
1. Sales are down 4% from last month, 20% up from this same month last year. Chart A3

2. Pending sales are down 4% from last month, up 25% from a year ago. So exactly the same as a month ago – Pendings still showing strength compared to last year. Chart A47, A48, & A49.

6. Year to date sales units up 14% from a year ago Chart A4. The year to date dollar volume is 21% higher this year. Remember our 7/21 class “mid year price projection!” So keep watching this spread – it is at 7% now. Chart A6.

11. Inventory is DOWN 2% from last month and 11% lower than last year at this time. This is a very significant number. Watch this, if it stays this much below last year’s levels price increases will heat up even more. Right now I am projecting a 6.5% increase in Median Resale Equity Pricing for 2016 compared to 2015. Eagle will double that! Charts A16 & A17

AUGUST 2016 Inside Scoop – Canyon County

1. Sales are UP 9% from last month. Comparing this month to the same month last year there is a 9% increase. Chart C3

2. Pending sales are down 4% from last month. UP 23% from this same month last year. Chart C47, C48, & C49.

6. Year to Date Sales Units up for 2016. 13% cumulative Year to date. Year to date dollar volume is 26% higher. Chart C4. This will be the year for big price increases in Canyon County as more and more buyers are headed west out of Ada to find affordable housing.

11. Inventory is down 1% from last month; and 17% lower than last year at this time. Here come higher prices! Charts C16 & C17



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Real Estate Market Update

JULY 2016 Inside Scoop – Ada County
If you like to keep score 8 vs. 11 :o(
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in in Bold
  
6.  Year to date sales units up 13% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 19% higher this year.  Remember our 7/21 class “mid year price projection!”  So keep watching this spread – it is at 6% now.  Chart A6.  
10.  Resale Affordability UP (more Affordable)  from last month- now 16%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.  Interest Rates continue at record lows but Resale prices are surging! Charts A39, A40, and A41.
 
13.  Resale inventory is up. – 1495 from 1353 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1760 resale homes for sale!!!.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   July 2005 was the low point in resale inventory at 657.  Good News for Builders!  Lack of inventory is forcing more new construction activity.  Chart A21
 
18.  Final Sales Discount is unchanged.  From the last asking price to final sales price, .5% from .5% last month.  Record low – 04/16 .3%.  Last year at this time it was 1.0%.  Chart 43
 
19.  Future Business Forecast is below 100%.  A54.  89%  – so closings next month will be below this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 90%.
 
 
JULY 2016 Inside Scoop – Canyon County
If you like to keep score 5 vs. 10 :o(
Positive News in in Bold
 
 6.  Year to Date Sales Units up for 2016.  13% cumulative Year to date.  Year to date dollar volume is 27% higher.  Chart C4.  This will be the year for big price increases in Canyon County as more and more buyers are headed west out of Ada to find affordable housing.

 

11.  Inventory is up 10% from last month;  and 17% lower than last year at this time.  Here come higher prices!  Charts C16 & C17

12.  New Construction inventory is up. 283 from 262 last month.  Last year at this time there were 340 new homes for sale.  Record high of 865 in March 2007.  Record Low 9/11 at 145.   Chart C19

13.  Resale inventory is up – 708 from 640 last month.  All time high was 2149 in July of 2008.   Last year at this time there were 850 resale homes for sale.  No wonder prices are jumping higher!  Watch this!!! 12/05 was the low point in resale inventory at 499.  02/16 sets another NEW RECORD LOW at 451!!! Chart A21

 Note:  Webb Chart Subscribers receive the full version each month.  To subscribe go to http://www.jerewebb.com
 


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Real Estate Market Update

“I was one of Jere’s early chart subscribers (2003-2004?), and I have not missed a year since.  I have used his charts  thru the years with builders, buyers and sellers, and found them an invaluable tool! They keep me on top of the constantly changing market and help to establish me as an “expert” in my field with potential and existing clients.  Also, thanks you again for expanding the Canyon County pricing charts. I’m sure everyone appreciates it!  I know I do”
Al Busby Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group
“I have been attending Jere Webb’s real estate chart classes for years.  I have found that class to be the most useful real estate class I have ever taken.  When Jere introduced his 9 x valuation method, I immediately purchased it and have used it many times. It is extremely useful in helping sellers feel confident that they have a good handle on their own pricing strategy and on what is happening with similar homes.  Several times over the years, Jere has even conducted a 9x analysis on one of my listings (for a fee) and having his judgement and expertise is a huge bonus. Obviously, he knows the system better than anyone and he is able to get full capacity out of the analysis tool he created.  I strongly recommend Jere’s chart subscription and the 9x analysis tool. He is endlessly willing to explain how it works and to collaborate with other agents to provide the best information and service to the Treasure Valley real estate community.  We are fortunate to have Jere working among us as a friend and fellow real estate professional.”
 Todd McCauley  Century 21 Eagle Rock Properties
“I have attended Jere’s stats classes for two years now and don’t want to miss another one during my real estate career if I can keep from it.  Statistics aren’t naturally exciting, but Jere brings them to life and the class interaction is extremely informative and valuable.  I highly recommend these classes for any and all agents regardless of how long you’ve been in the business.”
Darrell Humphrey  Silvercreek Realty Group
“I have been a subscriber to the Webb Charts and attended Jere’s classes for over 10 years. I recommend attending the classes to keep up with the current charts  I find the charts both informative and very instructive. Informative because they confirm the suspicions I have regarding current market conditions. Instructive because they allow me to show buyers and sellers visually,a third party perspective to validate the information I am conveying. And, they save me a ton of time by not having to generate the information myself so I can focus on what I do best. Don’t leave home without them!”
Don McFarland Broker/Owner RE/MAX West

“Great information!  The numbers (historical) are so important to understanding future direction.  Jere explained the data mining and analysis so well it empowered me with true confidence heading into our 2015 market.  And it provided me with a better way to understand what the data means.  Thank you!”
Leslie Wright, Keller Williams

“I tried 9X on my own on another listing this evening and it worked great. I love the 9x and am so glad that I signed up. Great program and the tutoring is unparalleled. The charts class was tremendously beneficial. I will definitely not miss any in the future. The demonstrations that were given on application of the charts was extremely helpful. The value to our clients and the impression it makes is certainly worth the minor cost to be a part of your program. I have been in the building and real estate business since 1973 and this is definitely one of the best things I have been exposed to. The tools to identify niches for your builders and investors while allowing them to participate in the analysis are great. This service would have meant a lot to me had it been offered by my Realtors when I was building homes. I am definitely a fan. Thanks so much for going to the effort and sharing it with us all. I am already addicted.”  

Reg Dobbs, Re/Max Executives

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David Nielsen, Silvercreek
 
I used the charts in a recent listing presentation.  My clients were amazed at how the market had changed.  It gave me leverage to present realistic expectations to my clients.  Loved it!”  
Faye Delbridge, Trust Realty
 
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Joe Rogan, Re/Max West
 
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Charlene Bragg, Group One
 
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Wendy Northcutt, Wendy Works Realty
 
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Laurie Burchfield, Downs Realty
 
“Jere, as one of your original subscribers, I want to thank you for the Webb Charts. I tell all of my agents how important it is to subscribe to your charts, I don’t know how a Realtor can call themselves a professional if they don’t provide their clients with the most accurate and current information available and your Webb Charts does that. Keep up the great work.”  
Terry Torrence, Manager, Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group
 
“I’ve been a subscriber to the Webb Charts since October 2007 and find them very useful.  They have really come in handy during the past couple months because they give you the ability to go ahead and show the seller’s how the market is trending; i.e. the median prices of homes in this market are declining.  When they visually see this, they are more likely to price the home at a competitive price that will get it shown and sold in a reasonable period of time.  Since subscribing to The Webb Charts, I have investigated other charting services that focus on the Treasure Valley market. I have found they are much less complete, much older data (at least one month older information, making them recent history, not timely information), and they don’t graphically show the market trends to the degree Webb Charts do. There is “Doing just enough to get by” and “Doing it right”. The Webb charts do it right.  I sincerely believe that any professional agent should have this tool available at their fingertips.”  
Don McFarland, Broker/Owner, ReMax West
 
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Larry Laraway, Broker, Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group

“I wanted to thank you for the great class this morning.  From a market outlook, it’s nice to see that TitleOne is predicting similar stats for 2012.  I believe the first half of 2012 will be stronger simply because of the refinance market, however we agree we’re at the bottom and going to bump along.  Your affordability index chart is good information that I intend to share with our leadership team, just some good information to have in your hip pocket.  You have done a tremendous job providing valuable information and presenting in a fashion for “all” eyes.   I look forward to your class in July.”  

Vicki White VP/Treasure Valley Manager TitleOne Corporation

“The class was fantastic.  I can say without hesitation, that trying to do residential real estate in SW Idaho without your charts at their fingertips is akin to tying to navigate rush hour traffic in Braille.  Ya can’t get there from here!!!”   

Joe Rohner, IdahoJoe Realty

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Liz Alexander, John L. Scott

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Faye Delbridge, Trust Realty

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Louise Auchampach, Idaho Properties

“Jere puts the market into an understandable perspective.  This class should be mandatory for all real estate professionals, lenders and appraisers included.  We all leave this class with valuable and useful information.”

Joe Rogan, ReMax West

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Sherry Rogan, ReMax West

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Eric Bracht, Siolvercreek

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Cindy Sawyers, Re/Max Capital City

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Ann Moffat, Eagle Rock Properties

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Des Hughes, Silvercreek

“I really enjoyed your chart class.  For pragmatic knowledge to take to my clients, your class definitely delivered.  I never thought I would be riveted by a class on statistics, but I was!  The charts are precisely what I need to guide my buyers & sellers to make the best possible choices in this market.  I’m a fan now & I can’t wait for the next class to see how far the mighty ship has turned.”  

Ann Sabala,  John L. Scott

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Bryan Richter, Group One

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Gail Hartnett , Keller Williams 2008-09 NAR Executive Committee, 2007 State President Idaho Assoc. of REALTORS(R), 2006 National President Women’s Council of REALTORS(R)

“Jere Webb’s “Webb Charts” have been invaluable to me.  I am not a numbers person, myself.  So when I go for a listing interview, it gives me immeasurable confidence to have these statistics to back me up.  If I am speaking with someone else who doesn’t love numbers, my favorite feature is the introductory comment (the “Inside Scoop”) Jere provides.  He actually interprets all those figures so anyone can understand them!” Rebecca Compton, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker

“For a reasonable investment Jere does the number crunching for those willing to educate themselves.  He even compiles charts and graphs that are very easy to understand and communicate/share with clients.  This assists agents to be true market experts.  With Webb Charts agents have the numbers to back up what they see and feel about the marketplace.  It also gives them a tool to combat wrong information that may be clouding client judgment (both buyers and sellers) when they give advice.   It is easy to tell a seller to lower their price when a property has not sold; but it feels better to show the client exactly why. Webb Charts make delivering complete market information easy and fun.  This is just what agents need.  I have attended Jere’s class and the only thing missing at this point is an additional hour which will allow him to cover the material more comprehensively and insert the few additional items that will bring the class to an even higher level of professionalism.  Jere’s quest to educate agents who in turn can educate their clients is spectacular.”  

Shaun Tracy, Associate Broker, RE/MAX Capital City

“I have been a subscriber to Webb Charts for just over a year and have attended 3 of Jere’s training sessions. As the market has evolved, so has the content of Jere’s classes. We all are aware this market is anything but static. Ergo, the material has needed to expand to keep up with the challenges we face in this current, severe market. By being fully versed in the content of these charts, I am better able to explain the actual market conditions (unlike the hyped hysteria spewed by the mainstream media) to the public, so that they can make informed decisions. This material is an excellent tool has proven to be a real Godsend.  Realistically, we could easily spend 6 – 8 hours explaining all the information and recaps contained in the charts, . . . As the content expands and updates, so should training.”  

Don McFarland, Designated Broker, RE/MAX West

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Doug and Joan Johnston, Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group

“The information truly gives agents taking the class a pulse on what is happening to our area as well as updating us to the very present market. These charts are very informative in many ways. The detail breakdown of categories that are sectioned out make it very clear on each segment of the market and show us the many ways the market is heading and acting. You walk away presently informed with a tool to be used that can give clients insight to our market conditions and where they can look for the best deal if they are looking for that great buy.  This information helps us in a secondary way too.  We can take the information on our present market and compare it to other outside state markets and be able to compare and see how those markets will be affecting our market. This can help us understand where we need to be positioning our selves in our business as well as being ready for that out-of-state buyer or investor.“  

Peggy Jordan, Group One

“Jere, Thank you for holding classes on the Market Charts.  It has been very beneficial and valuable to me and my clients.  This has been a great professional tool when talking to Buyers and Sellers in educating them on the current market.  I appreciate all your work and efforts.  Please keep up the good work.”  

Pat Waller, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker – Tomlinson Group

“Jere, your class is always very informative. The class and the charts make our specific data take on more relevance from the narrow perspective of the related property and its comps to the market at large and MLS Areas.  By using the total data approach, it assist in helping the clients, be they buyers or sellers; to be  able to see more clearly the realities of the current market trends.  Thereby, the client is able to make more well-informed and rational decisions–whether in the current volatile market or any market conditions.”  

Bonnie & Kevin O’Hara, Realtors, Coldwell Banker

“Expanding Webb Charts class to 4 hours would be very beneficial for us “practicing” agents.”  

Rick Thurber, Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group

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Pohley Richey, Realtor, Homeland Realty

“As a former certified instructor I see that many agents enter the business of selling real estate but do not take the job seriously when it comes to being able to report market numbers to their clients.  Part of this failure is due to the overwhelming time it takes to compile statistics in a vibrant and easily communicable way that can be relayed in layman terms.  It is also the fact that many people simply do not possess the math skills to figure out how to compile this information.  This class is informative and educational.  Jere is an engaging speaker and does well to keep the class interactive and interesting.”  

Tami McHugh, CPA, Broker/Owner, Heritage Real Estate

“Jere Webb’s charts are awesome!  They have helped my business tremendously.”   

Jeff Christianson, Associate Broker, Re/Max Capital City

“I have taken many Real Estate classes but only a few of those classes have directly assisted me in improving my ability to educate my clients on current housing conditions. The material that Mr. Webb provides in his class is very useful and has enabled me to understand the dynamics and trends of the real estate market in both Ada and Canyon County which is extremely important to my business. Because of the material covered in His class, I am better able to represent my clients. In fact, I would argue that his class is critical to my success. Though, getting through all the material in three hours proved challenging, all the time spent in Mr. Webb’s Charting class was well worth it.”  

Curtis Thaden, Mountain Realty

“In the current market it is vital to have the FACTS!  Jere Webb’s charts provide those facts and lend credibility to a listing presentation.  To present yourself as a professional in touch with the market you need to take Jere’s class and subscribe to receive his monthly charts.”  

Chet Pipkin, Broker, Downs Realty

“I have always been a proponent of knowing your stats, both personally and market wise. Knowing what the market is doing statistically not only helps us know the trends of our business, but gives us confidence and helps us be knowledgeable and professional. In the end what we may ‘feel’ about how the market is doing may have little bearing in what it is actually doing. Statistics and numbers are the true indicators of market activity and trends. Webb Charts is a superior source of vital market statistics. Jere does all the legwork and allows us to use his efforts to maximize our effectiveness.”  

Mike Gamblin, Broker/Owner, Mike Gamblin Real Estate

“No matter what industry you’re in, data is king. In real estate if you don’t know what the market is doing, how much inventory there is, how many are selling and have a format that is easy to present, you’re not going to be successful.  If you’re not using Webb Charts it would be like the Broncos trying to win a football game without their play Book.”  

Terry Torrence – Broker/Manager, Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group

“Webb Charts have changed my business!  It’s great to have an accurate, reliable source of information that allows me to educate myself, my clients, and the public on what’s really going on in the real estate world.  Plus they are a great tool to “fight” the media’s dramatic and inaccurate real estate reporting.  They are an absolute must-have!”   

Burma Naylor, Realtor/Co-Owner, Mountain Realty

“I am in my second year subscribing to Webb Charts and they have become a very important part of my business.  I rely on Jere’s statistics to prepare my reporting about the market to developers and builders.  I also incorporate some of Jere’s statistics into my farming plans and sphere mailings.”  

Janeen Sanchez, Realtor, Coldwell Banker

“I have heard from many that there is data that is ‘free’ from their title companies & that we can get the information for ourselves off the MLS system.  I have a Marketing degree with a statistics emphasis and a strong understanding of Excel so I could create these reports myself.  However, obtaining accurate historical information would be difficult if not impossible (Webb Charts have several years of data).  And an even bigger question is, ‘would it be worth my time to create these reports?’  I know that once the original templates & macros are written it would still require some time & commitment to consistently get the data.  Also, when there is questionable data would I recognize it and follow-up to correct it like Jere does?  I question the wisdom in recreating the wheel, when I can subscribe to the Webb Charts.”  

Gail Nussbaum, Realtor, Coldwell Banker

“The Webb Charts have been a great asset in my business over the last five years.  They paint a clear picture for my clients which helps give me an edge when competing for business.  Without the charts, it would be like shooting from the hip and/or guessing, which is not professional.”  

Michael Simis, Realtor, Coldwell Banker

“I have found Jere’s Webb Charts to be invaluable in the operation of my business.  I use them with both Buyers and Sellers to assist them in understanding our local market and how it affects them personally.  We are constantly bombarded by the media with information that may not pertain to our market; the Webb Charts provide the ammo necessary to combat that.  The information is concise, current and in a format that is easy to present.”

Bill Re, Silvercreek

“I have had the charts less than a week and I find myself sharing information from them constantly.  Keep up the good work!”

Ron Minegar, Broker/Owner Ron Minegar Real Estate

 


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Real Estate Market Update

  2016 Inside Scoop – Ada County
If you like to keep score 11 vs. 8 :o)
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in in Bold
 
1.  Sales are UP 9% from last month, 10% up from this same month last year.  
 
6.  Year to date sales units up 14% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 21% higher this year.  Higher prices will continue in 2016.  Chart A6.  
 
11.  Inventory is up 3% from last month and 15% lower than last year at this time.  This is a very significant number.  Watch this, if it stays this much below last year’s levels price increases will heat up even more.  Charts A16 & A17
 
14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 1.9 from 2.0 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  This sets a new record low – 6/16 at 1.9!  Chart A26.
 
19.  Future Business Forecast is below 100%.  A54.  88%  – so closings next month will be below this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 89%.
 
 
JUNE 2016 Inside Scoop – Canyon County
If you like to keep score 5 vs. 10 :o(
Positive News in in Bold
 
 
1.  Sales are up 9% from last month.  Comparing this month to the same month last year there is a 13% increase.  Chart C3
 

6.  Year to Date Sales Units up for 2016.  14% cumulative Year to date.  Year to date dollar volume is 28% higher.  Chart C4.  This will be the year for big price increases in Canyon County as more and more buyers are headed west out of Ada to find affordable housing.

 

11.  Inventory is up 16% from last month;  and 22% lower than last year at this time.  Here come higher prices!  

13.  Resale inventory is up – 640 from 546 last month.  All time high was 2149 in July of 2008.   Last year at this time there were 834 resale homes for sale.  No wonder prices are jumping higher!  Watch this!!! 12/05 was the low point in resale inventory at 499.  02/16 sets another NEW RECORD LOW at 451!!! Chart A21

14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is up.  This month’s 2.0 from 1.9 last month.  The all time record high was February 2009 of 23.5. All time RECORD LOW!  05/16 1.9.  Previous Record Low 04/16 at 2.0.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales. – no averaging of sales.  Chart C26

 

19.  Future Business Forecast is below 100%.  C54.  At 87% this means closed sales will be down next month from this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 90%.
 


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Real Estate Market Update

ADA County (Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star & Kuna)
1.  Sales are UP 13% from last month, 15% up from this same month last year.  Watch this last number especially – as we chew through the existing inventory and buyers are forced to look at the reality of  NC Pricing, what will happen then?   % won’t be able to buy at the higher price so I wouldn’t be surprised to see this decline. . .by our July class we should know more. . . Chart A3 
 
2.  Pending sales are UP 8% from last month, up 25% from a year ago.   Chart A47, A48, & A49.
 
6.  Year to date sales units up 15% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 22% higher this year.  Higher prices will continue in 2016.  Chart A6.  
7.  Median Price up for a home sold this month  – $242,500.  This is 1% up from last month; and a 6% increase from this same month last year!    Chart A10
10.  Resale Affordability unchangefrom last month- now 16%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.  Interest Rates continue at record lows! Charts A39, A40, and A41.
 
11.  Inventory is up 8% from last month and 13% lower than last year at this time.  This is a very significant number.  Watch this, if it stays this much below last year’s levels price increases will heat up even more.  Charts A16 & A17
 
12.  New Construction inventory up. – 786 from 750 last month.  Last year at this time there were 765 new homes for sale.  Record high 09/06 at 1890!  Record low  06/13 at 494 but it has surged up since then.  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19
 
13.  Resale inventory is up. – 1274 from 1154 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1613 resale homes for sale!!!.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   July 2005 was the low point in resale inventory at 657.  Good News for Builders!  Lack of inventory is forcing more new construction activity.  Chart A21
 
14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 2.0 from 2.1 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  This sets a new record low – 5/16 at 2.0!  Chart A26.
 
18.  Final Sales Discount is up.  From the last asking price to final sales price, .4% from .3% last month.  Record low – 04/16 .3%.  Last year at this time it was .8%.  Chart 43
 
19.  Future Business Forecast is above 100%.  A54.  112%  – so closings next month will be above this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 104%.
 
 
MAY 2016 Inside Scoop – Canyon County
 
1.  Sales are up 6% from last month.  Comparing this month to the same month last year there is a 13% increase.  Chart C3
 
2.  Pending sales are up 6% from last month.  UP 29% from this same month last year.  Chart C47, C48, & C49.

 

6.  Year to Date Sales Units up for 2016.  14% cumulative Year to date.  Year to date dollar volume is 28% higher.  Chart C4.  This will be the year for big price increases in Canyon County as more and more buyers are headed west out of Ada to find affordable housing.

8,9,10.  Not calculated.

11.  Inventory is up 1% from last month;  and 29% lower than last year at this time.  Here come higher prices!  Charts C16 & C17

12.  New Construction inventory is down. 231 from 263 last month.  Last year at this time there were 321 new homes for sale.  Record high of 865 in March 2007.  Record Low 9/11 at 145.   Chart C19

13.  Resale inventory is up – 546 from 506 last month.  All time high was 2149 in July of 2008.   Last year at this time there were 725 resale homes for sale.  No wonder prices are jumping higher!  Watch this!!! 12/05 was the low point in resale inventory at 499.  01/16 new record low at 474!  Now 02/16 sets another NEW RECORD LOW at 451!!! Chart A21

14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 1.9 from 2.0 last month.  The all time record high was February 2009 of 23.5. This is a new all time RECORD LOW!  05/16 1.9.  Previous Record Low 04/16 at 2.0.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales. – no averaging of sales.  Chart C26

 

19.  Future Business Forecast is above 100%.  C54.  At 109% this means closed sales will be up next month from this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 99%.
 
 
 


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Real Estate Market Update

July 21 Class at Title One
I am looking forward to getting some perspective on what is happening in 2016!
I want to hear from “experienced agents” as well as share insights of my own
Wild and Crazy Market – and most are unaware of the phenomena pictured in the newest charts 
  APRIL 2016 Inside Scoop – Ada County
If you like to keep score 16 vs. 3 :o)
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in in Bold
 
1.  Sales are UP 17% from last month, 14% up from this same month last year.  Watch this last number especially – as we chew through the existing inventory and buyers are forced to look at the reality of  NC Pricing, what will happen then?   % won’t be able to buy at the higher price so I wouldn’t be surprised to see this decline. . .by our July class we should know more. . . Chart A3 
 
2.  Pending sales are UP 12% from last month, up 19% from a year ago.   Chart A47, A48, & A49.
 
6.  Year to date sales units up 14% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 21% higher this year.  Higher prices will continue in 2016.  Chart A6.  
13.  Resale inventory is up. – 1154 from 1034 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1507 resale homes for sale!!!.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   July 2005 was the low point in resale inventory at 657.  Good News for Builders!  Lack of inventory is forcing more new construction activity.  Chart A21
 
14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 2.1 from 2.2 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  This sets a new record low – 4/16 at 2.1!  Chart A26.
 
17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 1.7 from 1.9 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 2.4 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32
 


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Real Estate Market Update

1.  Sales are UP 36% from last month, 12% up from this same month last year.  Chart A3 
 
2.  Pending sales are UP 15% from last month, up 23% from a year ago.   Chart A47, A48, & A49.
 
5.  The dollar volume was UP 35% from last month and 16% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5 
 
6.  Year to date sales units up 13% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 19% higher this year.  Higher prices will continue in 2016.  Chart A6.  
7.  Median Price up for a home sold this month  – $235,500.  This is 0% up from last month; and a 6% increase from this same month last year!    Chart A10
 
9.  Resale Median up this month – $217,000.  This is up 2% from last month; and a 3% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.
 
11.  Inventory is down 1% from last month and 17% lower than last year at this time.  This is a very significant number.  Watch this, if it stays this much below last year’s levels price increases will heat up even more.  Charts A16 & A17
 
12.  New Construction inventory down. – 712 from 765 last month.  Last year at this time there were 736 new homes for sale.  Record high 09/06 at 1890!  Record low  06/13 at 494 but it has surged up since then.  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19
 
13.  Resale inventory is up. – 1034 from 994 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1376 resale homes for sale!!!.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   July 2005 was the low point in resale inventory at 657.  Good News for Builders!  Lack of inventory is forcing more new construction activity.  Chart A21
 


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Stop Looking - Start Finding!

JERE WEBB

(208) 861-2222

Downs Realty - Eagle
221 S. Eagle Road
Eagle, Idaho 83616