Idaho Property Management and Real Estate from Jere Webb - Downs Realty

BOOM OR BUST? What is just ahead of the Treasure Valley Real Estate Market?

July 19, 2021 at the Nampa Title One Conference room we will be looking at a large number of indicators that will help to answer this very important question that our clients are asking! The introductory Class “Stats 101” starts at 10am and is FREE to anyone. The Analytics Class starts with lunch at 12 Noon and will go until approximately 3pm. Tuition Cost is $50 except for current Webb Chart Subscribers – then it is FREE. Enroll online at http://www.jerewebb.com

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BOOM OR BUST? What is just ahead of the Treasure Valley Real Estate Market?

Alexander, Liz John L Scott
Blanco, Yuri ReMax Executives
Brown, Michael Available
Bruner, Kyle RE?MAX West
Burroughs, Tim EXP
Caporale, Steven Accel
Cronin, Christie Homes of Idaho
Curry, Andy Coldwell Banker
DiMattio, Ricky Woyak
Dodge, Tressa Woodhouse
Hancock, Deanna Genesis
Hinck, Brent Silvercreek
Pyles, Ward Homes of Idaho
Rudolph, Krista Genesis
Sandovol, Marivelle Homes of Idaho
Smith, Sheila RE/MAX Capital City
Trimble, Judy Woodhouse Group
Vargas, Savy SRG
Weber, Jonna Silvercreek
Welch, Michelle John L Scott
Yahr, Denver Trust
Zweigle, Jason Silvercreek
Zweigle, Krisy Silvercreek

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BOOM OR BUST? What is just ahead of the Treasure Valley Real Estate Market?

Save the Date: Wednesday, July 25 Chart Classes at Title One in Meridian.

Headline: January Market Takes Off like a ROCKET!

Current Month’s Chart Access:

www.JereWebb.com

1. Select “Webb Charts” tab on the top strip, then “log in to Webb Charts.” Username always stays the same but the password changes monthly on or about the 6 – 8th.

2. Username: jerewebb

3. Password:

4. You may then choose to download one of 3 PDF file options.

Color Code: This is the Title Background so you won’t miss it!

Blue = Buyers Only

Silver = Sellers Only

Yellow = Both

January 2018 Inside Scoop – Ada County

If you like to keep score 12 vs. 4 :o)

(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)

Positive News in in Bold

1. Sales are down 26% from last month, 11% UP from this same month last year. Strong Close for the year Chart A3

2. Pending sales are UP 15% from last month, UP 34% from a year ago. Chart A47, A48, & A49.

3. The dollar volume was down 23% from last month and 35% up from this same month last year. Chart A5

4. Year to date sales units UP 11% from a year ago Chart A4. The year to date dollar volume is 35% higher this year. Wow!!!. Chart A6.

5. New Construction Median price up 3% this month – and a 18% Increase from this same month last year. Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold! Chart A9

6. Resale Median UP 1% this month – and a 15% increase from this same month last year. Record low 01/11 at $126,500. Chart A12.

7. Resale Affordability Unchanged– now 23%. Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 18% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI. 06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 29% Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 13%. Interest Rates have climber 27 basis points in just the last month! Charts A39, A40, and A41.

8. Inventory is down 17% from last month and 14% lower than last year at this time. This a NEW RECORD LOW since I have started tracking in 1999! Charts A16 & A17

9. New Construction inventory Down. – 761 from 840 last month. Last year at this time there were 816 new homes for sale. Record high 09/06 at 1890! Record low 06/13 at 494 but it has surged up since then. I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19

10. Resale inventory is Down. – 424 from 582 last month. Last year at this time there were 555 resale homes for sale!!!. July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920! January 2018 is the NEW LOW Point in resale inventory at 424. This is at least an 18 Year Low! Good News for Builders! Lack of inventory is forcing more new construction activity. Chart A21

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To get the complete “inside Scoop” along with full access to over 100 charts published monthly, go to jerewebb.com and become a subscriber!

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BOOM OR BUST? What is just ahead of the Treasure Valley Real Estate Market?

Title One – Meridian 2-4pm

Current Registration List: (Updated 1.16.18)

Alexander, Liz John L Scott
Arnadottir, Hafdis Coldwell Banker
Barela, Diana Silverhawk
Bruner, Kyle Re/Max West
Busby, Al Coldwell Banker
Cady, Bill Today’s
Choudeck, Debbie Gold Star
DiMattio, Ricky Woyak
Dobbs, Reg Re/Max Executives
Dusenbury, Randall Atova
Ellis, Karen Coldwell Banker
Enrico, Andy Andy Enrico
Fitzsimmons, Tom Preview of Homes
Gussie, Karen Client
Humphrey, Darrell Silvercreek
Jordan, Patty Brandt
King, Seth Title One
Knoeller, Holly Better Homes & Gardens
Kuzmack, Thorey Accel
LaBour, Heather Client
Langley, Angel Silvercreek
McChristy, Patrick Silvercreek
McFarland, Don Re/Max West
Mock, Laurie Silvercreek
Munson, Mary Authority
Nielsen, David Silvercreek
Nussbaum, Gail Coldwell Banker
Oliver, Julie Keller Williams
Pitron, Georgie Better Homes and Gardens
Re, Bill Silvercreek
Rogan, Joe Re/Max West
Rogan, Sherry Re/Max West
Rudolph, Krista Genesis
Talbert, Pat Woyak
Thompson, Sean Silvercreek
Ward, Mikel Group One
Zehner, Monique Atova

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BOOM OR BUST? What is just ahead of the Treasure Valley Real Estate Market?

Title One – Meridian 12:30 – 1:45pm

Current Registration List: (updated 1.15.18)

Abel, Justin 208
Brewer, Francis Silvercreek
Brown, Michael Available
Bruner, Kyle Re/Max West
Butler, Sandy Homes of Idaho
Choudeck, Debbie Gold Star
DiMattio, Ricky Woyak
Dyer, Dianne Better Homes and Gardens
Goodrich, Hana Silvercreek
Gussie, Karen Client
Hosbein, Liz Homes of Idaho
Humphrey, Darrell Silvercreek
Jordan, Patty Brandt
Kraemer, Teresa Homes of Idaho
Kuzmack, Thorey Accel
LaBour, Heather Client
Luckow, Karla Dreamcatcher
McChristy, Patrick Silvercreek
McKenzie, Tami Equity Northwest
Mock, Laurie Silvercreek
Oliver, Julie Keller Williams
Pyles, Ward Homes of Idaho
Snell, Debbie Gold Star
Stockman, Stephanie Homes of Idaho
Wickham, Debbie Boise Premier

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BOOM OR BUST? What is just ahead of the Treasure Valley Real Estate Market?

Wednesday, January 17 Chart Classes at Title One in Meridian.

12:30pm – Stats 101 – NOT for experienced Chart users – Free to all

2-4pm – Regular Chart Class – “A Quick Look at 2017 in Perspective – and Planning for 2018” – Tuition $50 FREE for Chart Subscribers

Reserve your spot at http://www.jerewebb.com

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BOOM OR BUST? What is just ahead of the Treasure Valley Real Estate Market?

AUGUST 2017 Inside Scoop – Ada County

If you like to keep score 13 vs. 3 :o)

(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)

Positive News in in Bold

1. Sales are UP 6% from last month, 13% UP from this same month last year. Chart A3

2. Pending sales are down 4% from last month, UP 12% from a year ago. Chart A47, A48, & A49.

3. The dollar volume was UP 8% from last month and 23% up from this same month last year. Chart A5

4. Year to date sales units UP 1% from a year ago Chart A4. The year to date dollar volume is 10% higher this year. More price increases are ahead for 2017. . . . perhaps a 6-7% increase in median resale for 2017 over 2016. Chart A6.

5. New Construction Median price UP 6% this month – and an 8% Increase from this same month last year. Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold! Chart A9

6. Resale Median UP 2% this month – and a 10% increase from this same month last year. Record low 01/11 at $126,500. Chart A12.

7. Resale Affordability Unchanged– now 23%. Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 18% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI. 06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 29% Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 13%. Interest Rates continue at record lows but have gone from 3.47% to 4.20% just since the election. .now in May falling back to 4.01%, June 3.9% .Charts A39, A40, and A41.

8. Inventory is down 1% from last month and 12% lower than last year at this time. This is a very significant number. Watch this, if it stays this much below last year’s levels price increases will heat up even more. Charts A16 & A17

9. New Construction inventory Down. – 711 from 724 last month. Last year at this time there were 749 new homes for sale. Record high 09/06 at 1890! Record low 06/13 at 494 but it has surged up since then. I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19

10. Resale inventory is Down. – 1226 from 1228 last month. Last year at this time there were 1440 resale homes for sale!!!. July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920! January 2017 is the NEW LOW Point in resale inventory at 555. This is at least a 17 Year Low! Good News for Builders! Lack of inventory is forcing more new construction activity. Chart A21

11. Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is Down. This month’s 1.7 from 1.8 month’s of inventory last month. This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging. January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory. NEW Record low – 06/17 at 1.6! Chart A26.

12. Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is unchanged. Keep an eye on chart A28, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold! This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales. This month’s 1.7 from 1.7 last month. This is a critical benchmark number. Last year at this time it was 2.0. Chart A28

13. New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up. Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 3.1 from 2.9 last month. February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time there was a 3.7 month inventory supply. September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3. Charts A30

14. Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is unchanged. Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 1.4 from 1.4 last month. February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 1.7 months of resale inventory. July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9. Charts A32

15. Final Sales Discount is unchanged. From the last asking price to final sales price, 0.3% from 0.3% last month. Record low – 05/17 0.2%. Last year at this time it was 0.7%. Chart 43

16. Future Business Forecast is below 100%. A54. 93% – so closings next month will be below this month’s level. Last year at this time it was 94%.

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BOOM OR BUST? What is just ahead of the Treasure Valley Real Estate Market?

1. Sales are UP 21% from last month, 2% down from this same month last year. Chart A3

2. Pending sales are UP 7% from last month, down 1% from a year ago. – humm Resale Pendings DOWN 12% from a year ago. All of that slack is being made up for in New Construction. Chart A47, A48, & A49.

3. The dollar volume was Up 25% from last month and 7% up from this same month last year. Chart A5

4. Year to date sales units down 2% from a year ago Chart A4. The year to date dollar volume is 5% higher this year. More price increases are ahead for 2017. Chart A6.

6. Resale Median UP this month – $247,500. This is a 4% change from last month; and a 8% increase from this same month last year. Record low 01/11 at $126,500. Chart A12.

7. Resale Affordability UNCHANGED– now 22%. Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 18% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI. 06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 29% Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 13%. Interest Rates continue at record lows but have gone from 3.47% to 4.20% just since the election. .now in May falling back to 4.01% .Charts A39, A40, and A41.

8. Inventory is up 6% from last month and 12% lower than last year at this time. This is a very significant number. Watch this, if it stays this much below last year’s levels price increases will heat up even more. Charts A16 & A17

9. New Construction inventory down. – 756 from 785 last month. Last year at this time there were 785 new homes for sale. Record high 09/06 at 1890! Record low 06/13 at 494 but it has surged up since then. I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19

10. Resale inventory is up. – 1052 from 920 last month. Last year at this time there were 1274 resale homes for sale!!!. July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920! January 2017 is the NEW LOW Point in resale inventory at 555. This is at least a 17 Year Low! Good News for Builders! Lack of inventory is forcing more new construction activity. Chart A21

11. Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is Down. This month’s 1.8 from 2.0 month’s of inventory last month. This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging. January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory. NEW Record low – 05/17 at 1.8! Chart A26.

12. Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down. Keep an eye on chart A28, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold! This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales. This month’s 1.9 from 2.0 last month. This is a critical benchmark number. Last year at this time it was 2.1. Chart A28

14. Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is Down. Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 1.4 from 1.5 last month. February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 1.6 months of resale inventory. July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9. Charts A32

15. Final Sales Discount is down. From the last asking price to final sales price, 0.2% from 0.5% last month. Record low – 03/17 0.3%. Last year at this time it was 0.4%. Chart 43

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BOOM OR BUST? What is just ahead of the Treasure Valley Real Estate Market?

4 New Canyon County Charts. In response to Al Busby’s request you will now find a pricing breakdown for New Construction Average Price & Median; as well as Resale of the same for Canyon. This should be a great benefit if you do business in Canyon County.

A39L = Long View of Affordability. I put this one in knowing that the data can’t be precisely read; but it does give clients a picture of “Affordability” from the peak of the bubble to the present time which is an excellent perspective. When I have more time I plan to manually eliminate a lot of the overlapping data point labels and just show peaks and valleys. Look for that in “future improvements.” Please consider this one just a very “rough draft.”

Note: Major change in Ada Affordability Charts for January 2017. I found Government Census information that confirms what we thought in class – Ada Median Household Income has NOT continued up 3%/year since the last official census. Even this data through January 2015 is still only an “educated guess” by the census department and may be adjusted later. But it is certainly more in keeping with what we are all feeling. So in keeping with this data my “interpolations” for the last two years reflect this new data and it does make a significant difference as you can see by about 6-7%!

Mark the date: July 12 next Chart Classes at Title One in Meridian. Thank you Laurie Burchfield for the Demo at Stats 101. In the future I would like to have her play an even bigger role in teaching our Chart Classes. Remember she IS the “Instigator!” :o)

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BOOM OR BUST? What is just ahead of the Treasure Valley Real Estate Market?

AUGUST 2016 Inside Scoop – Ada County
1. Sales are down 4% from last month, 20% up from this same month last year. Chart A3

2. Pending sales are down 4% from last month, up 25% from a year ago. So exactly the same as a month ago – Pendings still showing strength compared to last year. Chart A47, A48, & A49.

6. Year to date sales units up 14% from a year ago Chart A4. The year to date dollar volume is 21% higher this year. Remember our 7/21 class “mid year price projection!” So keep watching this spread – it is at 7% now. Chart A6.

11. Inventory is DOWN 2% from last month and 11% lower than last year at this time. This is a very significant number. Watch this, if it stays this much below last year’s levels price increases will heat up even more. Right now I am projecting a 6.5% increase in Median Resale Equity Pricing for 2016 compared to 2015. Eagle will double that! Charts A16 & A17

AUGUST 2016 Inside Scoop – Canyon County

1. Sales are UP 9% from last month. Comparing this month to the same month last year there is a 9% increase. Chart C3

2. Pending sales are down 4% from last month. UP 23% from this same month last year. Chart C47, C48, & C49.

6. Year to Date Sales Units up for 2016. 13% cumulative Year to date. Year to date dollar volume is 26% higher. Chart C4. This will be the year for big price increases in Canyon County as more and more buyers are headed west out of Ada to find affordable housing.

11. Inventory is down 1% from last month; and 17% lower than last year at this time. Here come higher prices! Charts C16 & C17

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